Bitcoin price could drop to below $40k in a few weeks!

Bitcoin price could drop to below $40k in a few weeks!

BitVerge – Veteran trader Peter Brandt, known for his application of Bayesian probability theory to market analysis, has predicted that Bitcoin will fall below $ 40,000.

Brandt’s methodology is based on adjusting the probability of events as new data comes in.

This method is the basis of Bayesian probability theory, which helps investors adjust their expectations based on changing information.

Read Also: Dogecoin price exceeds $0.10, what is the next level?

What is the probability of Bitcoin falling below $40,000?

Brandt first started trading Bitcoin in 2016, initially believing there was a 50% chance the cryptocurrency would hit $100,000. At the same time, he also believed there was a chance it would fail.

But over time, Brandt’s view has evolved, heavily influenced by his technical analysis tools.

For example, in early June, Brandt estimated a 50% chance of Bitcoin falling to $30,000 and a 50% chance of it rising to $140,000. But his current forecast has changed to:

– A 65% chance of Bitcoin falling below $40,000.

– A 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000.

– A 15% chance of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by September 2025.

US Elections and Their Impact on Crypto

In this context, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chugani explained that the upcoming US presidential elections could have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. According to Chugani, the winner – whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – could significantly impact the trajectory of the cryptocurrency.

Shugani said: “If Trump wins, we expect Bitcoin to reach new record highs, and if that happens by Q4, Bitcoin could reach the $80,000-90,000 range. If Harris wins, Bitcoin could break the current support around $50,000 and test the $30,000-40,000 range.”

This year, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000, after peaking in March. It is currently trading around $56,510, down 1% in the past 24 hours.

Standard Chartered Bank, meanwhile, has forecast that Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 if Trump, who portrays himself as a pro-cryptocurrency candidate, is re-elected.